Home Sellers Now Outnumber Buyers By 63%, the Biggest Gap Since the Post-Recession Housing Crash

Redfin’s September 2026 analysis estimated 62.6 percent more home sellers than buyers nationwide, or roughly 63 percent. The report, published October 14, found the widest gap in its records dating back to 2013. On top of that, realtor.com reported that twenty percent of sellers have dropped their listing prices. In states like Florida, Texas, South Carolina, and Tennessee, price drops are happening everywhere. I am smiling from ear to ear because the true buyer market we have been praying for since 2020 has finally arrived. While many people hesitate because mortgage rates feel high, the reality is that today's market allows you to make sellers pay to solve that problem.

https://www.redfin.com/news/buyers-vs-sellers-september-2026/

Understanding the Shift in Real Estate

Except for a few resilient areas, particularly in parts of the Northeast and San Francisco, I would argue that ninety percent of the country is firmly in a buyer market. Between 2020 and 2022, record-low interest rates created a brutal environment for everyday buyers. Homes disappeared within hours, bidding wars were standard, buyers paid thousands over appraised value, and many settled for homes they did not even like just to get an offer accepted. Today, the landscape is entirely different because buyers finally have choices and time.

Never Waive Your Home Inspection

During the peak frenzy of the last few years, buyers routinely waived home inspections just to compete. I have spent over eight years publicly advising buyers never to waive an inspection, and today's market restores your power to protect yourself. You can thoroughly inspect a property and insist that the seller address safety hazards and structural issues before you agree to close.

To show you how powerful this leverage is right now, look at a situation one of our clients faced today. They were under contract on a modest home where the seller had already agreed to cover all closing costs. The inspection came back with serious concerns, including necessary electrical work and an entirely new roof, totaling ten to twenty percent of the home's overall value. When the buyers requested these repairs, the seller initially refused. Our buyers immediately signed a contract termination. Six hours after receiving the cancellation, the seller came back and agreed to complete every single repair. That is the leverage you hold when sellers genuinely need to sell.

Making the Seller Pay Your Costs

If you are waiting on the sidelines hoping sellers will slash their list prices on their own, you are missing the boat. I was speaking with a top agent in Texas who explained that many sellers intentionally hold their list price because they know buyers will submit lower offers and ask for concessions anyway. If you wait for public price drops, a proactive buyer will step in ahead of you, offer less, and secure seller credits.

When you write an offer in this market, you should not only target an appropriate purchase price based on days on market, but you should also ask the seller to cover your closing costs, pay your buyer agent commission, and provide funds for a mortgage rate buydown. Listing agents know that higher rates shrink the buyer pool. If a seller wants to move their property, it is reasonable to expect them to help bridge that affordability gap. Very few markets across the country currently require buyers to pay their own agent commission out of pocket, so if your agent claims you cannot ask for these concessions, you need to find an agent who understands modern negotiation.

The Power of Simply Asking

A first-time buyer working with our team this month was paired with a family friend who was considered a top local agent. We reviewed the numbers and advised the buyer to ask for a price reduction, full agent commission coverage, and eighteen thousand dollars in seller credits to handle closing costs and buy down her interest rate. The buyer had personal savings, but there was no reason to deplete her cash reserves when market conditions favored asking the seller.

Her real estate agent pushed back hard, claiming the seller would never agree to eighteen thousand dollars and suggesting ten thousand was the absolute maximum. The buyer trusted our guidance and insisted on submitting the offer as planned. Within twenty-four hours, the seller accepted the offer outright without even countering. The home had been sitting for twenty-six days, and the seller was ready to deal. When agents tell you no before they even try, they are leaving your money on the table.

The Bottom Line

Navigating a buyer market successfully requires a lender who understands deal structure and a real estate agent who is unafraid to ask for concessions. Today's sellers are far less likely to be speculative investors testing the waters and far more likely to be motivated homeowners who need to sell. When you know your rights, protect your inspection contingencies, and demand the credits you need to make your monthly payment comfortable, you can step into homeownership with absolute confidence.