Jumbo buyers are back, inventory is up, and sellers are holding firm. Here's how to negotiate price cuts, rate buydowns, and closing costs in today's Texas standoff.
Welcome to your November mortgage and housing update. We're not even halfway through the month, and it has already been a very interesting one. The biggest trend I've noticed is the return of the jumbo buyer. I'm seeing more jumbo buyers than I have seen in a long time, which raises a good question: what is bringing them back? In this update, I'll cover that, along with where mortgage interest rates are heading, what's happening with inventory, and why I think we're in a Texas standoff. If you're new here, I've been a mortgage lender for 20 years, and my team is one of the top teams in America. Most of our business comes from people like you reaching out, so if you need a loan officer, you can call my team and me at 786-933-2077.
In October, mortgage rates hit a peak. They weren't as high as they were in October of 2023, but they were definitely getting there. Many nights I went to bed half expecting to wake up to an 8% rate. Over the last four weeks, though, we've seen rates come down, which was welcome news.
However, we just had a spicy inflation report, so instead of continuing to fall, rates have started bouncing up and down. I expect that back-and-forth to continue for the next few weeks until the next Fed meeting in December. Right now, 86% of the market expects the Fed to make a 25 basis point move, and there is some sentiment that it could be 50 basis points. Until then, the market will react to every piece of news as it comes in, from energy costs to new economic reports, while trying to figure out what the Fed will do next month.
Realistically, what does this mean for you as a home buyer? Honestly, nothing new. Rate volatility can feel a lot like Groundhog Day. The best thing you can do is work with a loan officer who will talk to you openly about mortgage rates, show you their rate sheet, and walk you through what's happening in the market.
Lately, I've had people come to me saying their lender told them they would lock their rate seven days before closing and they didn't need to worry about rates. Please don't accept that. If a lender will only lock you seven days before close, you're a hostage. It is really tough to switch lenders when you're in contract and only a week away from closing.
With most of our clients, we start the conversation on day one of the contract. We tell them where rates are and talk through what they want to do. Whether to lock or float is always up to the client. We're also helping clients write stronger offers by asking the seller to pay to buy down the rate, asking the seller to cover closing costs, and even asking sellers to lower their price.
That negotiating power is exactly why jumbo buyers are returning. In about 90% of America, this is one of the best buyer's markets we've seen in close to a decade. We have more inventory than we've had in years, and while inventory usually starts to shrink around this time of year, that hasn't happened this year.
Some unmotivated sellers will take their homes off the market for the holidays. But even in a seller's market, the end of the year is traditionally when buyers have the most power, because generally only truly motivated sellers are listing. Spring is when sellers make the most money, not winter. If you look at the historical charts, winter is when buyers get the best deals. Add less competition because of today's rates and more inventory, and you have a very good market to negotiate in.
For context, 2020, 2021, and 2022 were horrible years for buyers. 2023 brought higher rates and less competition, but there wasn't much inventory, and sellers still needed to come back to reality. It really took until early 2025 for sellers to realize they couldn't gain $100,000 in equity every year. Today, you have more inventory, elevated rates that keep competition down, and many sellers who have been waiting years to sell.
Right now, sellers are praying that rates improve so they can get a higher price. Buyers are waiting for sellers to drop their prices and for rates to fall to improve their payment. Lower rates would bring more competition, though, and if rates ever get back to 6%, it will be pandemonium. Trying to forecast rates over the next few years is like rolling dice. Pending home sales are the lowest they've been since 2010, yet I don't expect a lot of big public price drops, except in some areas competing with new construction. Sellers know that a house with six price drops looks desperate and invites even lower offers. That's why I think we're in a Texas standoff.
The way to move forward is to write an offer you're comfortable with. If you've been watching a house for three months and the price hasn't dropped, offer less. Talk with your agent about what the house is worth and what you need to keep your payment comfortable. Be realistic. If a house is listed at $800,000, you won't get it for $200,000. But if it's really worth $780,000 and you need it at $760,000 to feel comfortable, offer $760,000. If you also want a rate buydown or closing costs covered, ask for those too. The worst the seller can say is no. Not every seller will agree, but if this didn't work, I wouldn't tell you to do it. In my experience, people who negotiate ultimately find a house they like at a deal they can afford.
Your loan officer and agent should work together on this. Ask us what the maximum seller concessions are, and we'll go through closing costs and show you what buying the rate down by a point would do that day. Once you can see what you need, we share it with your agent, and you confirm it too. One more tip: make sure your pre-approval letter matches your offer. If a home is listed at $600,000 and you're offering $580,000, you shouldn't hand over a letter for $650,000. A $580,000 letter shows you're offering your best while being fully underwritten and approved.
Some headlines make it seem like a foreclosure crisis is coming any day. As a mortgage lender, a crash would actually help my business because more people could afford homes, so I'm not saying this to protect myself. A recent survey from ICE, a major financial firm, found that only 2% of homes in America are distressed. You don't get a housing crash with a 2% distress rate. Homeowners have more equity than ever, many have rates under 5%, and 40% of homes in America don't even have a mortgage. Adjustable rate mortgages have made up less than 10% of the market for years and are nothing like what we saw in 2008. I was there, and today is totally different.
In other news, the House of Representatives passed a bill that could dramatically increase refinance costs for veterans. It has not passed the Senate yet, but it's worth watching.
Until the Fed meets in December, expect rates to keep bouncing. Meanwhile, this is a great time to negotiate. Work with a real estate agent who loves to negotiate and a lender who will talk through how much you can ask for, what you're comfortable with, and what a rate buydown can do. Don't wait for the market to hand you the deal you want. Ask for it. If you need a loan officer, call my team and me at 786-933-2077.
More guides
November 5, 2026
Explore why buyers are considering South Carolina, with local insights on housing costs, jobs, buyer agreements, and seller concessions.
November 4, 2026
VA loans offer zero down payment, lower interest rates, and no monthly mortgage insurance. Here is what veterans need to know to maximize their hard-earned mortgage benefit.
November 2, 2026
Buying a short sale requires patience, strategy, and zero upfront spending before bank approval. Understand how short sales work and how to navigate the process successfully.
Ready for next steps
Apply now through Rate or schedule a time with the Beeston team for direct guidance.
